Fairmont, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

912
FXUS61 KPBZ 030940
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
440 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light showers return tonight, with dry weather again Tuesday.
More widespread rain, snow, and an increasing chance of
freezing rain for some return Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Drizzle/freezing drizzle lingering north of Pittsburgh and in
  the PA ridges early this morning.
- Above average lows with areas of fog overnight.
- Dry and warmer conditions today.
----------------------------------------------------------------

Warm air continues slow progress northward with the warm front.
Portions of Venango, Forest, Clarion, Jefferson, and Indiana
counties remain in the cold spot early this morning as sub-
freezing road and air temperatures coincide with lingering
drizzle. Therefore, the Advisory has been extended for these
counties until 8 AM. Patchy freezing fog may also occur in this
area overnight. Patchy dense fog will be possible elsewhere
north of Pittsburgh with residual boundary layer moisture and
light wind.

Ridging will briefly build over the region today, ensuring dry
weather as warm advection in southwesterly flow intensifies.
This will boost afternoon temperatures into the 50s for much of
the region, with a 60-90% chance south of Pittsburgh of hitting
60F for the first time this year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Light rain chances Monday night with a cold front.
- Dry and cooler temperatures Tuesday.
- Mixed precipitation and increasing odds of freezing rain for
  some Wednesday and Wednesday night.
- Marginal risk for excessive rainfall Wednesday night south and
  southwest of Pittsburgh.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

Low pressure crossing from Ontario into Quebec will pull a cold
front through the region Monday night. In the absence of deeper
moisture and significant upper support, brief and light
scattered showers are all that is expected late Monday evening
into the overnight. QPF will amount to a few hundredths across
much of the area, with best focus and perhaps a quarter inch or
so along the ridges overnight.

Stronger cold advection should arrive Tuesday morning behind
the front, dropping temperatures below freezing except south of
Pittsburgh Tuesday morning. Light showers look to end before
significant temperature drop, so a changeover to frozen
precipitation is not expected, but any puddles lingering on
roads could lead to isolated black ice Tuesday morning. Building
high pressure will keep conditions dry, and should help to at
least partially clear skies by the afternoon. High temperatures
should end up near-average for most of the area.

Our next significant system will impact the area Wednesday and
Thursday as surface low pressure crosses out of the Central US
and into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday night. Some uncertainty
remains in the timing of light precipitation onset Wednesday
morning or afternoon, but confidence is high in widespread
precipitation overspreading the area from the southwest
Wednesday evening into the overnight. Precipitation will then
exit the area Thursday night.

Precipitation type will be the predominant challenge with this
system, and freezing rain may impact portions of the area
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Depending on onset time and
arrival of warmer air, initially light precip Wednesday may
arrive as freezing rain or snow across southern portions of the
area. However, by Wednesday evening, confidence is increasing
that a deep layer of warm air below 700mb will overrun cooler
surface temperatures. Where surface temperatures remain below
freezing, a period of freezing rain is expected before
eventually transitioning to all rain Thursday morning.

At this time, the area most likely to see freezing rain Wednesday
night is across the Allegheny Mountains and Laurels and into
the I-80 corridor east of Grove City, PA (>40%) with increasing
probability farther east (>90% near Dubois, PA and across
eastern Indiana Co.). However, it is still possible for other
areas to see a light glaze of ice if surface temperatures remain
cooler for longer. Icing may be significant in the areas
mentioned above. NBM probabilities paint a 30-40% chance of
>0.1" of ice along the Laurels and up through DuBois.

Rain will continue on Thursday as the system shifts east and
temperatures surge back into the 50s. Soundings even suggest
the possibility for elevated instability and some thunder chance
south of Pittsburgh early Thursday morning. Rain will taper off
through the afternoon. Gusty conditions (20-30kts) on Thursday
may knock down any limbs damaged by ice, and could hamper power
restoration.

One final impact is worth mentioning: excessive rainfall. Rain
Wednesday through Thursday (heaviest Wednesday night) may total
>0.75 for much of the area and near an inches across the ridges.
WPC has introduced a Day 3 Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall
primarily targeting heavy rains Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Temperature remains above-average.
- Dry weather on Friday before additional rain with crossing low
  pressure this weekend.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Brief surface high pressure will favor dry conditions on Friday,
though with cooler temperatures than Thursday.

Ensembles continue to show high probability for another low
pressure system crossing the area Saturday into Sunday. However,
discrepancies in the strength of this system continues for now.
Depending on the strength and track of this system, mixed
precipitation could again impact the region for the weekend.

Near seasonal temperatures return Friday, with warming
temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Expect additional mid and upper level cloud cover filtering in
from the northwest through the morning and into the coming day.
Still some low level moisture remains and with a few breaks in
the low level cloud cover, dense fog has developed and FKL and
DUJ will be the most impacted. Its likely that these terminals
will remain at IFR or below through 18Z.

Improvement is expected after 14Z or so this morning as drier
air arrives from the south. FKL/DUJ are likely to remain MVFR
through 00Z Tuesday, but other terminals are likely to achieve
VFR by 18Z as MVFR probabilities drop to 50% or less. A decent
surface pressure gradient will remain, and southwest winds may
peak in the 15 to 25 knot range during the afternoon. A passing
cold front overnight tonight returns precip chances and another
round of restrictions as most sites will have dropped to MVFR
before 06Z tonight.

Outlook...VFR briefly returns Tuesday before restrictions
return during the midweek period with rain.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...Rackley
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Rackley/88
AVIATION...CL/Shallenberger/AK